The accession pipeline in the US for new pilots, increasingly dependent on learning technologies, is being restored, and none too soon, as a pilot shortage is eyed toward the mid-part of this decade. Marty Kauchak reports.      

Civil aviation remains on a turbulent path in the attempt to return to pre-Covid-19 operating levels. With lackluster passenger demand and the unsteady pace of restoring domestic and international routes, the industry is no longer facing the pilot shortage with which it was grappling just a few months ago. Reopened flight training programs, which increasingly rely on distance learning and other technologies to help select and retain aspiring pilots, are part of the strategy to help minimize a predicted next pilot shortage for later this decade.    

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As the Covid-19 pandemic persists, and students return to campuses across the United States, there has not been a significant decline in the number of students enrolled in pilot-degree programs, according to a survey of aviation educators. Nearly 90% of schools report “little or no change.”

Only one school reported more than 15% cancellations or degree changes. About one-quarter indicated a “melt” of 5-15% in students committed to attending (though up from 10% a month ago). One-third are seeing less than 5% change, and 26.47% indicated all enrolled students plan to attend.

Surprisingly, in the wake of the devastation in the airline industry, nearly 40% of the universities will have a higher number of students than started a year ago. Only 15% expect a lower number, and 36.4% are level with 2019.

Ken Byrnes, Chair of the Flight Training Department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU), who moderates the ad-hoc national group’s periodic Zoom discussions, cautioned, “As the airline industry slows, interest can start to wane,” but he reminded that the process of becoming an airline pilot “is a four- to five-year journey, and the industry is going to need a significant amount of pilots in the near future.”

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