From Prototype To Production, eVTOL Manufacturing Scales Up

Whilst training infrastructure develops, the race to industrialise eVTOL production is accelerating. The question is no longer whether eVTOL manufacturers can build aircraft, but whether they can build them at the scale and cost required for commercial viability.

Manufacturing Momentum Builds

Joby Aviation has announced plans to double US manufacturing capacity to four aircraft per month by 2027, supported by a $250 million investment tranche from Toyota Motor Corporation. The company has begun procuring capital equipment for round-the-clock manufacturing operations in California and has commenced propeller blade production in Ohio. 

The company has disclosed more than $1 billion in potential aircraft and service sales, a figure that suggests market appetite exists beyond early adopters. Founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt speaks confidently of "the next golden age of aviation," drawing parallels between Joby's ambitions and the small number of companies globally capable of aircraft production at scale.

Yet optimism must be tempered with realism. Joby has yet to fly a fully conforming aircraft for FAA certification flight testing, though the company continues to target commercial service launch this year. The first FAA-conforming aircraft has entered power-on testing for Type Inspection Authorization, with four additional conforming aircraft now in production.

Flight Testing: Divergent Approaches

The technical race is being contested across multiple continents with strikingly different design philosophies. Eve Air Mobility achieved a significant milestone in December with the successful first flight of its full-scale uncrewed prototype at Embraer's test facility in Brazil. The flight validated the aircraft's fifth-generation fly-by-wire controls and integrated propulsion system. Eve plans to manufacture six conforming prototypes and conduct hundreds of flights throughout 2026, targeting type certification and service entry in 2027.

"Today, Eve flew. This is a historical milestone for our employees, customers, investors and the entire ecosystem," said Johann Bordais, Eve's CEO. The company leverages Embraer's 56 years of aerospace expertise, providing a foundation distinct from purely startup operations and recently secured significant financing to help "accelerate development" .

Vertical Aerospace has completed its third full-scale prototype, doubling flight test capacity, and scheduled a US tour with its certification aircraft starting in New York City this January as it moves toward 2028 commercial service.

The Scale Question

Is four aircraft per month sufficient scale to achieve commercially viable cost reductions, or does the business case require far greater production volumes? The variety of architectures, Joby's vectored thrust, Eve's lift-and-cruise, BETA's fixed-wing approach, suggests the industry has not converged on an optimal design. Will operational experience reveal certain configurations are fundamentally better suited to commercial service?

Toyota's involvement with Joby signals that automotive-scale manufacturing thinking is entering the sector. Yet aircraft production, even electric aircraft, involves certification requirements and quality standards that differ fundamentally from automotive manufacturing. The challenge is adapting high-volume production techniques whilst maintaining aerospace-grade safety and reliability.

Timeline Reality Check

Certification timelines continue to extend, with most manufacturers now targeting 2026-2027 rather than earlier dates previously discussed. And the business case for high-utilisation, low-cost urban flight has yet to be proven commercially.

However, the sector is closer to commercial reality than at any previous point. Whether that reality arrives in 2026, 2027, or later in the decade will determine which companies survive and whether urban air mobility fulfils its promise.

Next in this series: China's regulatory surge. As CAAC releases draft airworthiness standards and Aerofugia secures 300 aircraft orders, will the East beat the West to market?