Why Pilot Shortage Doesn't Guarantee Job Offers

BAA Training is examining why a Boeing forecast of 674,000 new pilots needed over the next two decades has not translated into easier hiring for newly qualified Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL) holders, who still face intense competition for entry-level First Officer roles.

According to Julius Norkunas, CEO of aviation recruitment platform AviationCV, the supply of newly trained pilots and airline demand are out of sync, as flight academies keep producing cadets while aircraft delivery delays and high fuel prices limit fleet growth.

"The long-term shortage forecasts are real, but they describe the next two decades, not today's job market for a low-hour First Officer," Norkunas adds.

According to IATA's June 2026 outlook, aircraft deliveries were about 5,600 below the pre-pandemic trend, while the global order backlog reached 18,100 aircraft in May 2026, equivalent to almost 60% of the active fleet. Airlines also tend to favour experienced pilots over newly qualified ones for safety reasons.

Beyond licensing requirements, airlines increasingly weigh simulator assessments, Crew Resource Management, decision-making and professionalism. Stian Skaar, Head of Training at BAA Training, notes that a CPL alone is often no longer enough.

"Holding a CPL isn't enough anymore. Airlines – particularly low-cost carriers in Europe – increasingly prefer candidates with additional qualifications such as the Airline Pilot Standards Multi-Crew Cooperation Course (APS MCC). It develops the technical and non-technical skills expected of today's pilots," says Skaar.

Ryanair and British Airways both prefer cadets who complete APS MCC training.

The pilot shortage is therefore not a contradiction, says BAA, but a question of timing and qualification. Long-term forecasts point to substantial demand across commercial aviation, while today’s recruitment decisions are shaped by immediate fleet requirements, regional conditions, aircraft types and the availability of experienced pilots.

For aspiring First Officers, waiting for the forecast shortage to translate automatically into job offers is not a strategy. A CPL opens the door, but candidates still need to understand where demand exists, prepare for airline-specific selection and develop the technical and non-technical skills required to transition into commercial operations.