A strong commercial aviation industry, stable defense spending and the need to service all platforms throughout their lifecycle are driving a growing aerospace and defense market, according to the Boeing Market Outlook. Released at the Paris Air Show, the outlook values the aerospace and defense market at $8.7 trillion over the next decade, up from $8.1 trillion a year ago.
The Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) includes a $3.1 trillion projected demand for commercial airplanes through 2028 as operators replace older jets with more capable and fuel-efficient models, and expand their fleets to accommodate the steady rise in air travel across emerging and established markets.
Boeing also unveiled its 2019 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), a longer-term forecast that delves deeper into the market for commercial airplanes and services. The newest CMO shows growing passenger volumes and increasing airplane retirements will drive the need for 44,040 new jets, valued at $6.8 trillion over the next two decades and up 3% from a year ago. The global commercial airplane fleet will also sustain the need for aviation services valued at $9.1 trillion, leading to a total commercial market opportunity of $16 trillion through 2038.
Of the new airplane deliveries, forecasters say 44% will go toward replacing aging aircraft while the rest will accommodate traffic growth. Together, the new jets support an industry where passenger traffic will grow an average 4.6% and cargo traffic will grow an average 4.2%. Factoring in the new airplanes and the jets that would remain in service, the global commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 airplanes by 2038. This is the first time the projected fleet has crested the 50,000 mark.
Around the world, the growing commercial fleet will require a larger supply of pilots, technicians and crews. Boeing's 2019 Pilot and Technician Outlook forecasts that the civil aviation industry will need nearly 2.5 million new aviation personnel between now and 2038.